Bitcoin in July 2025: Bullish Trends, Institutional Moves, and What Comes Next
July 2025 is now in the rearview mirror, and what a month it’s been for Bitcoin. From a record-setting close in June to institutional reshuffling and on-chain milestones, the world’s top digital asset showed remarkable resilience while signaling a maturing marketplace. Let’s dive into the trends that shaped the month—and what might lie ahead.
Coming off a record high monthly close of $107,100 in June, Bitcoin entered July looking strong. It didn’t disappoint. By July 28, it hovered near $118,070, a 9.54% month-to-date gain despite a mild 0.78% dip that day. For 2025 so far, Bitcoin tallied an impressive 26.39% rise, spurred by thick institutional demand and improving regulatory clarity.
On the technical front, the charts flashed a bullish monthly pin bar—an indicator that suggested buyers were eager to defend key price levels. With these signals and a seasonal tailwind (historically, July brings an average of 8% gain), traders eyed a potential breakout toward the $115,000–$130,000 zone. But volatility lingered, especially in the final week, coinciding with a massive $9 billion options expiration and a dramatic drop in average transaction fees—from above $12 to just $1.23.
Institutionally, July was anything but dull. Spot Bitcoin ETFs told a tale of shifting sentiment. BlackRock’s IBIT fund netted $143 million in inflows on July 23, showcasing strong conviction. In contrast, Fidelity’s offering bled $227 million that same day. Cumulatively, ETF assets hit a massive $153.25 billion with $54 billion in YTD inflows.
Yet, the real twist came from the altcoin space. Ethereum spot ETFs exploded with $296.5 million in July 22 inflows—potentially due to traders reallocating amid Bitcoin’s price pause. XRP, DOGE, and other altcoins briefly took center stage, outperforming BTC in perpetual funding rates, a sign of speculative enthusiasm shifting gears.
Under the hood, Bitcoin’s hashrate reached an all-time high of 955.75 EH/s by late July. This figure matters: it signals miner confidence. With operations expanding across North America and Central Asia, the network has never been more secure. Mining revenue followed suit, soaring to over $50 million a day.
Still, Bitcoin faced a technical gauntlet with key support and resistance levels forming:
- Support: $110,000 (psychological defense zone)
- Resistance: $125,000 (the point where billions in short positions face liquidation risk)
Should Bitcoin fail to maintain the $110k mark, eyes turn quickly to the $100,000 line and the 200-day EMA near $95,000. On the flip side, for bulls to push higher, on-chain activity needs to rise. Currently, daily transaction volume sits at 364,471, down 42% from last year—a muted pulse from retail participants.
Zooming out, July brought exceptional progress on the regulatory front. The U.S. introduced the groundbreaking BITCOIN Act of 2025, proposing a federal strategy to acquire 1 million BTC over five years. In parallel, the CLARITY Act designated Bitcoin a "digital commodity," placing it under Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversight. This move settles years of legal debate and invites more institutional involvement.
At the state level, multiple U.S. regions pushed forward on Strategic Bitcoin Reserves, echoing the federal tone and hinting at long-term treasury diversification. As a result, even conservative fund managers are taking a second look at Bitcoin’s role in macro portfolios.
Beyond policy, macroeconomic clues shaped Bitcoin’s July trajectory. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, keeping the risk-on environment alive. Meanwhile, volatility watchers turned cautious as the VIX (implied equity volatility index) showed signs of a potential August spike. Any turbulence in equities could spill into crypto, especially with leveraged positions stacked high.
That brings us to derivatives, perhaps Bitcoin’s most telling data point in July. Futures and options combined to post a record-high open interest of $45.4 billion. The heart of this was a $12.3 billion Bitcoin options expiration on July 25, where directional bets hit peak momentum around the $125,000 strike price.
Perpetual funding rates stayed modestly positive above 0.01%, but again, altcoins nudged ahead, creating a short-term liquidity drag on BTC dominance. Such overcrowded derivatives build-ups are a double-edged sword: they support breakouts, but also expose the system to abrupt corrections if too many positions unwind at once.
Underneath all the macro and market action lies a quieter revolution. Bitcoin’s realized capitalization surpassed $1 trillion this month—a major milestone that quantifies aggregate capital invested. Meanwhile, the Lightning Network, Bitcoin’s Layer-2 solution for faster and cheaper transactions, expanded its capacity to 5,000 BTC. This 400% growth since 2020 signals not just technological maturity but a rising tide of grassroots adoption.
However, data suggests the network is increasingly used for large transfers rather than daily spending. A full 89% of transaction volume now involves amounts over $100,000. The average transaction size? $36,200. It’s clear Bitcoin is evolving more into a high-value settlement layer than a payment rail for your weekly coffee.
So, where does that leave us?
July 2025 offered a clear snapshot of Bitcoin’s transformation. It’s no longer just the domain of retail enthusiasts. It’s a globally held, heavily analyzed, institutionally traded digital commodity. At Loka Mining, we see this moment as pivotal—not just for price action, but for the long-term direction of the ecosystem.
Looking ahead to August, here’s what we’re watching:
- Price Levels: Support at $110,000, resistance at $130,000
- Derivative Overhangs: A legacy of $49.3 billion options open interest from May could weigh on market movements
- Hashrate Arms Race: Will rising energy costs temper miner expansion or spark innovation?
The road ahead remains full of opportunity, yet seasoned traders know the risks. As we move deeper into Q3, stay informed, stay nimble, and keep an eye on developments from both macro and micro angles. For real-time insights and updates, follow us on @lokamining.
About Loka Mining
This article was published by Loka Mining, your trusted partner in Bitcoin mining and blockchain technology. Follow us on X @lokamining for the latest insights on mining, cryptocurrency trends, and industry updates.
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